Aim
This project develops the science needed to integrate data and models about Scotland’s rural social-environmental systems, with the goal of developing the capability to answer policy-led questions quickly. It is one of three projects on the topic of large-scale modelling. In terms of spatial extent, we interpret ‘large-scale’ as meaning the whole of Scotland, plus the national and global contexts in which Scotland sits. ‘Large-scale’ also means including more system components to avoid the ‘water-bed’ effect in which addressing one problem causes another; and finer granularity in the explicit representation of space, time, people and organizations.
Drivers
Computer modelling has an increasing role to play in helping to navigate the landscapes of complex social-environmental decision-making processes and offer decision-makers integrated, consistent guidance based on formalizations of evidence. Such computer modelling needs to be accountable and transparent, especially when the consequences of such decisions have impacts on businesses and citizens. Modelling and data analysis in this project is driven by:
- the need to monitor the health of Scotland’s soils in support of production of land-derived goods, biodiversity, regulation of water and nutrient flows, and carbon sequestration;
- biophysical and societal pressures on arable land systems and the threats and opportunities from climate change;
- changes in frameworks for supporting production systems, changes in international trade agreements, and technological innovations particularly in the circular economy.
Objectives
The project has the objective to conduct research in support of providing integrated and transparent models, datasets and tools for analysis of rapid-response, policy- led, rural social-environmental scenarios at the whole-of-Scotland scale.
The project's objective is achieved through six work packages -- one management work package and five scientific work packages.
- WP0: Agile Management. Objective: To ensure the project's timely and continuous delivery of value to the scientific, policy and stakeholder communities.
- WP1: Digital Environment. Objectives: To co-construct guidance for integrative and reproducible modelling and to prototype and iteratively co-develop digital infrastructure to provide a digital environment for policy-led large-scale modelling of Scotland's rural human-environmental system based on international best practices and innovative uses of existing and novel data sources.
- WP2: Soil Monitoring Framework. Objective: To evaluate and present options for a soil monitoring framework that takes into account the variety of Scottish soils, is applicable across a wide range of land uses, and becomes part of Underpinning National Capacity.
- WP3: Rural Landscape Potential for Multile Benefits. Objective: To develop models that improve the sustainable delivery of mulltiple benefits from land, accounting for spatial constraints on suitability and land change impacts.
- WP4: Governance Scenarios. Objective: To undertake large-scale modelling to explore scenarios pertaining to government influence on the rural social-environmental system, and the impact this has on waste.
- WP5: Mediated Modelling. Objective: To provide a service to WPs 1-4 by prototyping and refining a set of mediated modelling protocols that can facilitate efficient, low-input stakeholder involvement in rapid-response, policy-led, large-scale modelling.